The New System of International Security creates a new institutional environment in which the continuation of aggression or the retention of occupied territories becomes economically, politically, and institutionally impossible for Russia. The only rational trajectory becomes the full and phased restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

The New System of International Security will stop the war in Ukraine because it changes the rules of the game themselves: war becomes unprofitable, ineffective, and structurally impossible for Russia. Peace becomes the only rational strategy.

It is clear that Russia will not “immediately” agree to peace and de-occupation. However, it will be compelled to do so because:

·        it cannot survive economically without participation in the new architecture of security and development;

·        aggression becomes economically and technologically impossible;

·        any continuation of occupation becomes equivalent to self-destruction.

The New System of International Security does not persuade Russia to “end the war” through negotiations. Instead, it changes the institutional conditions so that war becomes impossible and senseless as a strategy. This is achieved through three key mechanisms.

 

I. War Becomes Economically Unprofitable Through Automatic Constraints, Not Manual Sanctions

In the polycentric environment of the New System of International Security, every state—including the Russian Federation—participates in institutions where economic assets, contracts, access to digital property, and international markets are automatically linked to security behavior.

This means:

·        any escalation → automatic economic restrictions, not manual sanctions;

·        any attempt at aggression → loss of participation, transactional assets, and contractual access;

·        risk of war → a decline in the value of Russian assets within the global system of economic interaction.

In practical terms:

·        issuing an order for “aggression” = automatic loss of hundreds of billions in economic assets and deals;

·        maintaining peace = preserving economic access and revenue.

War ceases to make economic sense.

 

II. War Becomes Politically Ineffective Due to Institutional Safeguards

Within the New System of International Security:

·        decisions by a single state cannot break the security system, because it is not vertical but network-based and institutional;

·        manipulation of rules, blackmail, and aggressive actions by Russia are automatically blocked institutionally, rather than through political bargaining;

·        the use of war as a political instrument no longer provides advantages, because:

o   digital institutions cannot be intimidated,

o   security cannot be “bought,”

o   individual states cannot be coerced.

Politically, Russia loses the ability to exert influence through fear, energy leverage, military blackmail, or hybrid instruments.

 

III. Automatic Deterrence and Protection of Ukraine

NSIS cannot be bypassed by slow diplomacy. It operates through automatic deterrence.

• AI detects early indicators of aggression;
• defensive protocols for Ukraine are activated;
• the aggressor is cut off from global institutional infrastructure;
• allied responses are triggered without political delay.

Rule violation → immediate response → restoration of balance.

The Core Systemic Effect

Russia does not simply end the war — war ceases to function as a viable instrument.

Aggression

• no economic or political gains;
• no leverage or status increase;
• higher cost of maintaining power.

Peace

• access to economic flows;
• greater legitimacy;
• integration into the digital global economy;
• lower governance costs.

 

 

Conclusion

Ukraine is the focal point where the security interests of Europe, the United States, and the global economy intersect. It is also where the old collective security system fails due to the veto mechanism.

• NSIS bypasses veto power as a post-state global institution;
• it operates on rules, not political bargaining;
• it grants Ukraine immediate access to self-defense mechanisms;
• it deprives Russia of the ability to evade responsibility.

The formation of NSIS makes the liberation of Ukrainian territories the most rational and probable political-economic strategy for Russia.